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Arsenal’s net transfer spend is £77.6m per season over the last 3 years. So why just £45m now?

It seems that one more scribbler has made the fundamental error of believing the gibberish pumped out by other scribblers.  Of course it is just possible that Arsenal has indeed offered £40m for a player whose actual value is closer to £80m.

So what was all this about Wenger offering half a player’s value to make a point about his crusade for financial prudence.  A look at the figures might be helpful.  Because there can be argument about prices of players I have taken all the prices from the same source: those quoted on Transfer Market.

Players Club Fee paid
£25.79m
£22.50m
£14.40m
£7.20m
Loan fee: £2.2
Players Club Fee received
£3.96m
£1.35m
£900k
Loan fee: £900k
Loan fee: £450k
Players Club Fee paid
£57.38m
£47.70m
£30.60m
£1.89m
Free Transfer
Players Club Fee received
£34.20m
£30.60m
£20.25m
£15.30m
£12.60m
£10.98m
£9.90m
£6.75m
Players Club Fee paid
£40.50m
£36.90m
£18.00m
£3.60m
£2.70m
£36k

Departures 2016/17

Players Club Fee received.
£4.50m

Nett expenditure: £97.24

So the club, in the past three years has spent, in round figures, £97m, £70m and £65m, after deducting the incoming money.  Which leads to the question, why would we suddenly cut the bill for this season down to £45m?

It is of course possible that the tale of £45m is a media invention.  It is notable that none of the papers I have seen have contrasted this sum with the spending of other years.  It is also possible that

a) Arsenal made no bid for Zaha at all, and that it is all make-believe made up by the media, or by Arsenal as a cover for other transfers they are doing.

b) Arsenal made the bid for Zaha and the price is a good one, but Palace think they can squeeze more money out of Arsenal, and so are placing a high fee on the player for publicity purposes.

c) Palace simply don’t want to sell, and so have said, “No, it’s £80m” on the basis that if a club is stupid enough to pay that much, they’ll take it.

Of course I don’t know which one is true, but I think it is viable to stress such options, simply because we know that in each of the last four years in which we have attempted to record all the transfer rumours surrounding Arsenal that only 3% of the rumours turn out to be valid.   So there is a 97% percent chance that some or all of the story concerning Zaha to Arsenal is untrue.

And this is the fundamental problem with most journalists and bloggers concerning transfer rumours.  They don’t start from the premise that there is only a 3% chance of any story being true.   Nor by looking at how much Arsenal has spent each year.

Arsenal do spend money each year.  Not as much as other clubs, but there is a consistent spend.  Yes if we suddenly drop way, way below that this year, there is an issue, but until the window closes, I wouldn’t take that £45m as fact.

Original article: https://untold-arsenal.com/archives/75980

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